The Chinese space station Tiangong-1 is heading back to Earth. The problem is the station is apparently not under any ground control.
We know it is coming down, just not when exactly. The current estimate is centered on 03 April plus or minus one week.
The other piece we cannot predict yet is where.
We do know where it will not, the blue area on the map below from Aerospace Corp.
The yellow areas are said to be worst-case areas, also happen to be the nodes and the green obviously the orbital path. Watching the satellite on N2YO shows the southern node seems to be the lowest portion of the orbit from what I’ve seen. Eventually it will be slowed to the tipping point by atmospheric drag.
Mostly Tiangong-1 will break apart and burn up (should be spectacular) but there are pieces that WILL reach the surface.
Aerospace Corp – “When considering the worst-case location (yellow regions of the map) the probability that a specific person (i.e., you) will be struck by Tiangong-1 debris is about one million times smaller than the odds of winning the Powerball jackpot. In the history of spaceflight, no known person has ever been harmed by reentering space debris. Only one person has ever been recorded as being hit by a piece of space debris and, fortunately, she was not injured.”